“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Job losses hit Wall St, Dow ends down 147, Nasdaq 8



U.S. stocks were hit with more bad news Friday, adding weight to the view the United States is heading for a recession.

The Labor department reported a loss of 63,000 jobs in the economy last month, far worse than expected, and well ahead of the 22,000 jobs lost in January.

At the close of trading the Dow Jones Industrials were down 146.70 points or 1.22% at 11,893.69.

The Nasdaq Composite was off only modestly, down 8.01 points or 36% at 2,212.49.

The Standard and Poor's 500 was down 10.97 points or 0.84% at 1,293.37.

The White House, confronting a falling economy, loss of confidence in financial markets, tumbling stock prices, and a collapsing dollar, was conceding an economic "slowdown," but taking issue with the term, "recession."

"This quarter's going to be a difficult quarter for the U.S. economy. We are in a low growth period in the economy," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.

"Recession is a technical term," he said. "Regardless of what you call it, we are clearly in a period of a slowdown in economic growth."

"The question isn't what do you call it, the important thing is what are you doing about it? And we have been aggressively dealing with the slowdown with the stimulus package," the White House spokesman said.

Meantime the global equity market gloom continued with London's FTSE 100 losing another 1.15% Friday. The German DAX closed 1.17% lighter, and the Swiss SMI 1.32%. The Paris-based CAC 40 fell 1.26%.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 3.27%. The Shanghai Composite lost 1.37%. The Australian All Ordinaries was down 2.95%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng shed 3.60%, while the Indian bourse, the BSE 30 fell 3.42%.

The U.S. dollar fell sharply in European trading breaking through crucial levels in European currencies and the Japanese yen.

Around the close in New York the rout had stabilized. The euro was quoted at 1.5346, the yen at 102.80, and the British pound at 2.0143. The Swiss franc was changing hands at 1.0252. The Australian dollar fell to .9277, and the Canadian dollar to .9892.

Market Commentaries-08/03/2008

Sensex at 6-month closing low

A surge in inflation, weak global cues and political concerns dampened the investor sentiments today as share prices declined sharply. All the sectoral indices on BSE were in the red. Reliance Energy was the biggest loser from the Sensex pack. Banking stocks tumbled. European markets, which opened after Indian market, were weak.

The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 566.56 points or 3.42% at 15,975.52, its lowest closing since 18 September 2007. The index had shaved off 852.16 points at the session’s low of 15,689.92, hit in afternoon trade.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty was down 149.80 points or 3.04% at 4771.60.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Market News-07/03/2008

Steel prices hiked by 10%
Steel producers have pushed up prices yet again by almost 10% — despite the government’s call against price hikes. Integrated steel makers increased the price of benchmark hot rolled coils (HR coils) between Rs 1,500 per tonne and Rs 3,500 per tonne (5%-10%) on account of rising iron ore, coking coal and energy prices. The hike would take the domestic HR prices to over Rs 33,000 per tonne.
KEC to acquire US power firm
The RPG group-promoted KEC International, one of the largest power sector erection, procurement and construction (EPC) majors in the world, will soon acquire a mid-sized power sector EPC player in the US. The company has identified a few targets and hopes to complete the transaction in a few months, according to Ramesh Chandak, managing director and CEO, KEC International. He added that the targeted company would be a transmission line construction
company.
BPCL may process 9.5 pct less crude in 08/09
Bharat Petroleum Corp's is likely to process 9.5 percent less crude at its two key refineries in the next fiscal year beginning April compared with this year, due to planned shutdowns. Shutdown at Kochi refinery would be to raise capacity and at Mumbai will be a maintenance shutdown. BPCL runs a 240,000-bpd refinery in Mumbai, and another 150,000-bpd refinery in Kochi in the southern state of Kerala. Its subsidiary, Numaligarh Refinery Ltd, runs a 60,000-bpd refinery in northeast India, where processing depends on crude availability.

U.S. stocks shatter, Dow loses 215 points, Nasdaq 52

Traders on Wall Street continued to sell stocks Thursday, driving the major indices to major new lows.

Adding heat to the fire was a report by the U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association released on Thursday, which showed home foreclosures at their highest level in more than twenty years.

At the close of trading the Dow Jones Industrials were down a hefty 214.60 points or 1.75% at 12,040.39.

The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite was off 52.31 points or 2.30% at 2,220.50.

The Standard and Poor's 500 was down 29.35 points or 2.20% at 1,304.35.

U.S. home foreclosures rose to record highs in the December quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. The number of foreclosures was higher than at any time since 1985.

The Labor Department also released data Thursday indicating the number of workers on jobless benefits remains at a two-and-a-half year high.

The U.S. dollar meantime sold off again. The euro reached new highs Thursday. At last call it was trading at 1.5388 around the New York close.

The British pound rallied to 2.0108, while the Swiss franc climbed to a three-year-high of 1.0216.

The Japanese yen rose to 102.57, while the Australian dollar was off sharply at .9252.

The Canadian dollar was little changed at .9868.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

U.S. stocks turn corner, Dow ends up 41, Nasdaq 13

Traders remained hesitant Wednesday, keeping U.S. indices on the defensive.

Stocks were mainly in the red most of the day, but turned up towards the close

The U.S. dollar meantime dived again.

At the end of trading the Dow Jones Industrials were down 41.90 points or 0.34% to 12,254.99.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 12.53 points or 0.55% at 2,272.81.

The Standard and Poor's 500 at 1,333.70 was up 6.95 points or 0.52%.

The euro rose to a new record high against the dollar at 1.5275. Around the New York close it was quoted at 1.5264.

The Swiss franc climbed to 1.0364, and sterling to 1.9910.

The Australian dollar moved up modestly to .9336, while the Canadian dollar, recovered from the Bank of Canada 50 basis points rate cut earlier this week. It was quoted at .9852.

The Japanese yen was a touch weaker at 104.04.

Foreign exchange traders have sold the already beleagured dollar off sharply, following a string of Fed rate cuts since September last year, which has seen official interest rates reduced from 5.25% to 3%. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has hinted rates will be cut further if conditions warrant it.

Market Commentaries- 05/03/2008

Market snaps four-day slide; Sensex garners 202 points

Snapping a four-day losing streak, the key benchmark indices surged in late trade today. Volatility was high. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries witnessed an upward momentum at the fag end of the trade. Software stocks were the flavor of the day. Banking, realty and power stocks dropped

19 out of 30 stocks from the Sensex pack were in the green. The market breadth was weak. European markets, which opened after Indian market, were in the green. Asian markets, which open before the Indian markets, were mixed.

The market remains close tomorrow, 6 March 2008 on account of Mahashivratri.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Market News 05/03/2008

Levels
16754 –16924 – 17150 􀂃 Above 16754, we have daily resistance of 16924 – 17150 -- 17515 with down gaps resistance at 17227 -- 17258. Above 17515 we have 18137.
16387– 16304 Buy area. If strong, markets will not break 16304.
If 16304 is not broken then we have a chance of crossing Tuesday’s high of 16754.
16164 – 16457 – 15332 􀂃 If 16387 is broken then we have support at 16164 Tuesday’s low
Below 16164 we have daily swing support at 16457. If 16457 is broken then we have
weekly swing support at 15332 and then we have monthly swing support at 13779



ICICI Bank takes $264-m hit on overseas credit exposure


ICICI Bank has suffered marked to market losses of $264.3 million (about Rs 1,056 crore) on account of exposure to overseas credit derivatives and investments in fixed income assets. These losses are as on January 31, 2008. Marked to market losses happen when the current market value of an asset is lower than its acquisition value, requiring the holder of the asset to make a provision equivalent to the difference.

ESAB India reports 31% rise in net profit
Esab India recorded 31% rise in net profit to Rs 13.3 crore on 12% rise in net sales to Rs 87.8 crore. Its margins have been easing sequentially from 24.8% in the quarter ended June 2007 to 22.5% in the quarter ended September 2007, which has further eased to 21.9% in the quarter ended December 2007. But they are higher by 350 basis points from 18.4% in the quarter ended December 2006. On annual basis, its margins grew by 110 basis points to 23.3% in 2007 after modest 20 basis points rise to 22.6% in 2006 over the previous year.

Nestle India Q4 net up 50%, FY07 net up 31%
Nestle India, has reported a 49.9% increase in net profits at Rs 93.6 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 when compared with Rs 62.5 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2006. Total income increased to Rs 905.3 crore from Rs 743.6 crore for the quarter under review, a growth of 21.7%.
Essar wins oil block in Vietnam
Essar Exploration & Production (EEPL), Mauritius, a subsidiary of Essar Oil, has been awarded an offshore block in Vietnam’s Song Hong basin. The block is measuring approximately 5,925 sq km. The company will start exploration soon. Exploration phase is estimated to last five years with an investment of ~ $ 60 million. Essar Oil will consolidate its upstream exploration & production activities under EEPL. This will help build a strong, fully integrated oil company with upstream, refining and downstream marketing activities.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Market Commentaries - 04/03/2008

Sensex plunges 1485 points in three days on Budget blues


The key indices drifted lower for a third consecutive session hit by Budget blues. Banking and realty stocks were worst hit in today’s trade. Auto stocks bucked the bearish trend. 19 out of 30 stocks from the Sensex pack were in the red. The market breadth was extremely weak.

European markets, which were positive in early trades, turned negative as day proceeded. Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, ended on a mixed note.

The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 337.99 points or 2.03% at 16,339.89. The Sensex lost 513.31 points at the day’s low of 16,164.57, hit in afternoon trade. The index gained 76.18 points at the day’s high of 16,754.06, hit in early trade.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty was down 88.75 points or 1.79% at 4864.25.

Market News -04/03/2008

Jain Irrigation acquires controlling stake in Switzerland based Thomas Machines S.A
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd (JISL), through its multi generation subsidiary, has acquired controlling stake (69.75%) in Thomas Machines S.A. of Switzerland (THE) with full management and operational control. JISL has additionally entered into Shareholders Agreement with holder of the 30.25% shares of THE, with call option which can be exercised over the next 3 years.

ACC records spurt in cement dispatches on low base
ACC recorded impressive 15% rise in production to 1.69 million tonne, while dispatches grew at an accelerated 17.4% to 1.69 million tonne in February 2008. The spurt in production was partly due to low base of February 2007, when its production and dispatches were affected due to planned stoppages on account of certain technical modifications carried out at three of its plants.

Oil imports surge
India’s Oil imports have surged by 60.8% to US$ 7,711.8 million in January 2008, up from US$ 4,795.5 million in January 2007. In the ten months ended January 2008, the country’s oil imports grew by 16.5% to US$ 57,023.3 million. Non oil imports were not behind, and they too surged by 65.1% to US$ 14,792.6 million in January 2008 and by 36.1% to US$ 134,580.8 million in the ten months ended January 2008.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Market Commentary-03/03/2008

Sensex tanks 901 points in global sell-off, Budget blues

The key benchmark indices witnessed an unabated selling pressure across sectors, mirroring weakness in the global stock markets. 26 out of 30 stocks from the Sensex pack were in the red. Even the mid-and small-cap stocks tumbled, as reflected in the poor market breadth.

Asian markets, which opened before Indian markets, ended on a weak note. European markets, which opened after Indian markets, were trading lower. A global sell-off was triggered today after weak US data on Friday, 29 February 2008 and a record loss of insurer American International Group Inc fuelled worries that there are more write-downs to come.

The BSE Sensex tumbled 900.84 points or 5.12% to 16,677.88 registering its second biggest single day point loss on a closing basis. It was also Sensex’s second biggest single day fall in percentage terms. BSE Sensex’s fall of 1,408.35 points or 7.41% to 17,605.35 on 21 January 2008 is its biggest ever fall in record.

Daily News -03/02/2008

Two wheelers sales dip
The two leading bike makers in the country, Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda, have reported a dip in February sales on the back of falling demand for the entry-level models and restricted finance availability. Bajaj Auto saw a decline of 8 per cent in motorcycles sales at 158,662 units in February as against 171,780 units sold in February 2007. A de-growth of about 13 per cent in the 100cc segment has offset stable sales in the 125cc plus segment, resulting in an overall de-growth for the company.
Hero Honda had its biggest fall in monthly sales in FY08, as it slipped by more than 5 per cent at 265,431 units as against 280,515 units in the corresponding month of the previous year. The company has blamed lack of finances as the reason for diminishing growth in the two-wheeler market. Hero Honda sells 13 models in the market compared with 9 models of Bajaj Auto including scooters.
Maruti posts a meagre 0.4% growth in Feb sales
India’s largest car maker, Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered a paltry rise in the domestic sales at 0.4 per cent at 59,311 units in February. The company had sold 59,095 units in the same month of the previous year. The growth driving A2 segment, comprising cars such as Swift and Alto, grew by a mere 2.7 per cent during the month. The total sales in the segment stood at 44,059 units. The SX4 segment grew by 8.9 per cent at 1,958 units compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. Exports grew by a healthy 15.5 per cent at 4511 units during the reporting period.

Shipping Corporation in talks with Korea’s STX for shipbuilding JV
State-run Shipping Corp. of India Ltd (SCI), the county’s biggest shipping firm by fleet size and revenues, is in talks with South Korean shipbuilder STX Shipbuilding Co. Ltd for a joint venture even as India looks to scale up its shipbuilding capacity to tap the global shipbuilding boom.

Ruchi Soya in tech deal with US company
Edible oil and soya foods maker Ruchi Soya Industries (RSIL) is planning to expand its flagship brand Nutrela to functional foods and beverages. As part of its growth strategy, it has signed an exclusive technology licensing agreement with NutriJoy, a US-based firm with key business of commercialisation of patented research technology for functional foods and beverages.
Ruchi Soya has drawn up business plans to introduce a new product range of food enriched with vital nutritional additives and cooking oils in the premium segment. This product range will provide consumers health benefits through foods beyond basic nutrition. The health food space in India is still at a very nascent stage. Hence, we will be looking into the specific needs of the Indian consumer before going ahead with the development for the products.

GTC set to demerge realty business, list it separately

Cigarette manufacturer GTC Industries in the board meeting has granted an in-principle approval to demerge the tobacco and the real estate business into two separate entities. The de-merged entities would be listed separately on the stock exchanges in India.
GTC Industries will demerge its real estate assets spread across Mumbai, Baroda and Hyderabad into a separate company. The demerged entity would then become a real estate development company while GTC would remain the cigarette manufacturer with brands
like Panama and Chancellor. The de-merged company would form joint ventures and develop real estate assets.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

140 Indian companies in Russian trade fair

IANS

Moscow, March 2 (RIA Novosti) Around 140 Indian companies will be in the spotlight when they showcase their products at the international trade fair being organised in St. Petersburg March 11-14.

Companies from 17 countries, including India, Germany, Denmark, Britain and China, will participate in the four-day event.

'The first day of the fair will be devoted to Indian industry to commemorate the Year of Russia, which is now under way in India,' said Igor Kirsanov, director general of the Restek Company and organiser of the event.

The latest innovations in the fields of engineering, metalworking, metallurgical products and car parts will be displayed at the four pavilions of the Lenexpo exhibition complex.

The huge Indian delegation to the fair in St Petersburg is a clear indication that Indian companies are interested in cooperation with their Russian counterparts.

The biggest draw will be the new Indian car Tata Nano, the world's cheapest car, tagged at just $2,500. According to the organisers, the Russians are eager to see the car, though it is not clear whether the car will be brought here.

The Indian companies are keen on supplying car parts for the automobile assembly plants here. Toyota launched its assembly plant in 2007 and General Motors in February this year. Nissan, Suzuki and Hyundai will also set up their ventures soon. Ford has its plant in the Leningrad region.

According to Mikhail Oseyevsky, deputy governor of St Petersburg, besides the automotive industry, Indian businessmen are also interested in cooperation in the information technology and metallurgical sectors.

Alongside the Indian delegation, companies from the Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Denmark, Britain, China, Turkey, South Korea, Austria, Croatia, Belarus and Ukraine will participate in the fair.

Global giants such as General Motors, Ford, Electrolux, Siemens and Bosch will showcase their products in the exhibition.

India's Sharp Tools and Russia's Elslar are likely to sign an agreement for a joint venture company - named Esweld - that will manufacture components for welding operations in the Elektrostal region near Moscow.

Weekly Report - 01/03/2008

MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS

Inflation figures stood at 4.89 % at the end of this week compared with 4.35% last week.

The yield on the 10-year G – Sec has remained flat at 7.04%.

Crude oil price stood at US$101.84 per barrel by the end of the week. Over the week crude oil

prices hovering around US$99.23 – 102.59 per barrel.

Rs per US$ exchange rate closed at 40.02 by the end of the week. Exchange rate Rs/US$
continued to trade around Rs.39.75to 40.02.